On the 23rd March 2003 Nicole Kidman accepted her Oscar for Actress in a Leading Role at the 75th Academy Awards ceremony. Earlier that week, the US invasion of Iraq had just begun. As she took to the stage at the Kodak Theatre in downtown Los Angeles to accept her award, she used part of her acceptance speech to acknowledge a political climate that feels eerily familiar this year:

‘’I do have to say it was, why do you come to the Academy Awards when the world is in such turmoil? Because art is important. And because you believe in what you do and you want to honor that. And it is a tradition that needs to be upheld. At the same time there are a lot of problems in the world. And since 9/11 there's been a lot of pain, in terms of families losing people, and now with the war, families losing people. And God bless them’’.

At the time of writing, there are no plans for this year’s 98th Academy Awards ceremony to be cancelled due to the current conflict in the middle east. On Sunday night, the world will be anxiously tuning in -not just to find out this year’s Oscar winners- but also to see how many acceptance speeches will be fuelled by political protest.

It’s shaping up to be one of the most exciting Oscar ceremonies in years. Beyond the war, there’s also been a crisis for Oscar voters: this year’s award season has been very hard to predict in major categories including Best Picture, Leading Actor, Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor. Each precursor award ceremony (Golden Globes, BAFTA, The Actor awards) seems to crown a different actor / actress. The only notable exception is Jessie Buckley who has won pretty much every single award on both sides of the pond for her performance in Hamnet. Add to all that some fresh controversy surrounding Leading Actor nominee Timothee Chalamet (who, in the last few days, has incurred the wrath of the Opera and Ballet communities by publicly insulting them in a recent interview) and you have all the ingredients for a real ‘’nail-biter’’ of an awards show! Host Conan O’ Brien returns for the second year after generally being a hit last year with both the TV viewers and the audience at the Kodak Theatre. Here’s who I think will (probably!) walk up the steps to the podium on the night:

PICTURE

Nominees:

Bugonia / F1 / Frankenstein / Hamnet / Marty Supreme / One Battle After Another / The Secret Agent / Sentimental Value / Sinners / Train Dreams

Will win: Sinners

There has been a real swell of support for Ryan Coogler’s southern gothic vampire blockbuster in recent weeks. The talk around Hollywood is that Sinners -the most nominated film in Oscars history (16 in total) - will walk away with the biggest prize of the night.

Could win: One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderon’s finely crafted allegory about revolutionaries battling a modern day far right U.S. regime was voted the best film of 2025 by the British Film Institute. I personally agree.

DIRECTOR

Will win: Paul Tomas Anderson for One Battle After Another

Arguably the finest director currently working in Hollywood, Paul Thomas Anderson (Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood) has never won an Oscar in any category. His 1970s infused bravura filmmaking style made ‘’One Battle After Another’’ an exhilarating cinematic experience and it’s set to secure him his first win this year.

Could win: Ryan Coogler for Sinners

There has been such a surge of goodwill towards Sinners in recent weeks that a sweep on the night could turn the tide in Coogler’s favour. At a time when original Hollywood blockbusters (i.e. not based on a comic book or not a reboot) are a rarity, Coogler could be rewarded for the originality of his vision.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Will win: Michael B. Jordan for Sinners

Now that Timothee Chalamet has possibly ‘’torpedoed’’ his chances of winning by making fun of the entire artistic communities of Ballet and Opera (the video of his interview with Matthew McConaughey has gone viral), this leaves the field wide open for Jordan. His recent win at the Actor Awards (which has a large voter overlap with the Academy Awards) certainly points to him as the new front runner for his barnstorming ‘’double performance’’ as prohibition era gangster twins ‘’Smoke’’ and ‘’Stack’’.

Could win: Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme

There’s no doubt that Chalamet is one of the most talented actors of his generation. His performance in Marty Supreme as a hungrily ambitious ping pong player is an undeniably towering achievement. But will the actor’s controversial Oscar campaigning sabotage his chances? Also, will voters think that -at the age of 30- he’s a little to young for the big honour?

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Will win: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet

I dare anyone to find a more heartbreaking performance in the last (or any) year than Jessie’s Buckley’s earthy and raw portrayal of a grieving mother in Hamnet- an adaptation of the best selling novel focusing on the relationship between a young William Shapespeare and his wife Agnes. Critics and awards commentators are calling this the only certain win in this year’s Oscar race.

Could win: Rose Byrne for If I had Legs I’d Kick You

If there was an upset in this category, it would most likely come with a win for Rose Byrne who has been widely acclaimed for her portrayal of a psychotherapist whose life and mental health seem to be spiralling out of control. Byrne has already won the Best Actress Award at the Berlin Film Festival and the Golden Globe for Best Actress- Comedy.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will win: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another

Breathing life into one of the most chillingly evil characters in recent film history, Sean Penn looks set to walk away with his third Oscar. Combining flickers of self-loathing with infinite hatred for anyone standing in his way, Penn makes Col Lackjaw a truly unforgettable movie villain. He has already won the BAFTA and The Actor awards.

Could win: Delroy Lindo for Sinners or Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value

If the Academy decides no to go with Sean Penn in this category, they will be looking to provide career recognition for veterans Lindo and Skarsgard. They’re both deserving: In Sinners, Lindo delivers a stirring monologue about the history of the blues. In Sentimental Value Skarsgard has never been better than in his role of a Swedish director battling past and present familial tensions.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will win: Amy Madigan for Weapons

It is exactly 40 years since Amy Madigan was last nominated for an Oscar (Twice in a Lifetime -1986). There’s a ‘’comeback’’ vibe to her nomination this year that feels almost certain to secure her a win for her terrifying (and very camp!) portrayal of Aunt Gladys in cerebral horror film Weapons.

Could win: Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners or Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another

If Madigan loses out, then the voters in this category could go one of two ways: firstly, a big awards haul for Sinners on the night could sweep Mosaku along with it. She’s electric as the healer Annie and everyone agrees she’s a star in the making.

Similarly, despite only being in the first 20minutes of One Battle After Another, Teyana Taylor remains etched in your memory as tough, determined revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills. Her towering presence is felt long after we last see her in the film. This category is the one most ripe for surprises on the night!

Constandinos Sarkas

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